theQuestion: Could Trump’s Tariffs Ruin Canada?
Donald Trump’s tariff war on Canada is madness—his reckless 25% tariffs are an act of economic self-harm that will hurt America just as much as they damage Canada. Worse, Trump’s fabricated trade deficit numbers and inflammatory rhetoric have thrown Canada’s politics into chaos, handing a lifeline to its flailing Liberal Party and reversing what should have been a Conservative landslide. If Trump’s goal was to free Canada from Justin Trudeau’s ruinous policies, he has done the opposite.
Let’s be clear: I’ve been a strong Trump supporter for years. During his first term, I defended his hardball tactics against Trudeau and the disastrous progressive policies that have made Canada nearly unrecognizable. Trudeau’s obsession with gender politics in trade negotiations, his post-nationalist drivel about Canada having no core identity, and his refusal to defend Canada’s economic interests were a disgrace. I attacked him for it. But this time, Trump is the one in the wrong.
Trump’s numbers don’t add up. Trump claims there is a $200 billion U.S. trade deficit with Canada. That number is flat-out wrong. The U.S. government itself puts the real goods and services trade deficit at about $67.9 billion USD—a fraction of what Trump is claiming. And if you remove energy exports (which the U.S. desperately needs from Canada), the deficit is zero. But even that misses the bigger picture.
Canada is one of the largest foreign investors in the United States, with over $876 billion CAD ($648 billion USD) tied up in U.S. stocks, real estate, infrastructure, and private equity. Canadian capital fuels Wall Street, stabilizes U.S. pension funds, and backs the American energy sector. If Trump wants a trade war, he’s picking a fight with the very money that keeps America running.
The Canada Pension Plan alone has nearly $294 billion CAD allocated to the U.S. The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan has another $69 billion CAD invested in American assets, including direct holdings in U.S. energy infrastructure, financial institutions, and commercial real estate. If Trump wants a trade war, Canada has a nuclear option: start pulling that money out.
The silence on this issue is deafening. Canada’s financial institutions, investment funds, and major corporations should be pressuring Trump hard. They have the leverage—use it.
Trump’s threat to Canada wasn’t just bad economics—it was catastrophic political strategy. Before his tariffs, the Conservative Party of Canada was cruising toward a historic victory. Trudeau was finished. His resignation earlier this year should have sealed the deal. Then Trump opened his mouth.
Enter Mark Carney, the former central banker turned Liberal Party leader—and now Prime Minister-designate—who has surged in the polls precisely because of Trump’s aggression. But Carney isn’t just another run-of-the-mill progressive. He sits at the very top of the globalist elite, a key architect of the financial stranglehold that is crippling economies worldwide under the banner of net-zero.
As UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance, Carney spearheaded the creation of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) in 2021, a coalition that forced the world’s biggest banks, asset managers, and insurers into lockstep with net-zero mandates. These policies triggered a massive shift in capital allocation, systematically choking investment in traditional energy while fueling ESG-driven financial controls that serve political ideology rather than economic reality.
For years, Trump has waged war against the very forces of globalism and elite financial control that Carney embodies. Yet now, his reckless tariff war has handed Carney and the globalist class a decisive political victory—one that could doom Canada to at least five more years of progressive ruin. It’s a stunning and deeply disheartening miscalculation.
Carney is no fool—he knows Canadians, even those who despised Trudeau, won’t tolerate an existential threat to the country’s economy. The Conservative Party’s massive 20-point lead has evaporated overnight, and suddenly the Liberals are back in contention. Even Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who was poised to take power, has been forced to distance himself from Trump just to survive. That should tell you everything.
Trump’s claim that the U.S. doesn’t “need” Canada is laughable. Canada is America’s largest trading partner, ahead of both China and Mexico. Millions of American jobs rely on seamless trade with Canada and slapping a 25% tariff on non-energy Canadian goods would devastate supply chains, manufacturing, and agriculture in both countries. Our two economies are integrated in ways Trump seems to have no comprehension of.
- American automakers? They depend on Canadian parts.
- The U.S. energy sector? It relies on Canadian pipelines.
- Wall Street? It’s backed by Canadian pension dollars.
A full-scale trade war would be a disaster for both nations—but Canada has a lot more ways to fight back than Trump seems to understand.
If Trump is willing to ignore Canada’s $876 billion CAD investment in the U.S., maybe it’s time to remind him just how much power that money holds. Canadian funds have massive stakes in U.S. stock markets, real estate developments, infrastructure projects, and private equity firms. If these funds begin to diversify away from U.S. markets or even signal hesitation about future investments, the economic consequences for America could be severe.
Some argue that Canadian funds won’t make drastic moves due to fiduciary responsibility—but that assumes the U.S. remains a stable and predictable investment climate. If Trump follows through on his reckless trade war, why should Canadian funds continue pumping billions into a country that is actively undermining its economy? More importantly, why wouldn’t the millions of Canadian workers whose pensions are tied to these investments demand divestment?
This isn’t about trade disputes. This isn’t about winning a negotiation. Trump’s erratic, factually incorrect, and outright destructive approach to U.S.-Canada relations is a grave miscalculation. It isn’t making America stronger. It’s undermining one of America’s most valuable economic relationships and pushing Canada deeper into the arms of its left-wing progressive establishment.
For the sake of both countries, Trump needs to drop the tariffs now—before he inflicts long-term damage that a future U.S. administration won’t be able to repair.
About the Author
